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HOUSING POLICY•5 hours ago

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Mortgage insurance could cancel itself when home equity hits the threshold

Mortgage insurance could stop being a bill borrowers have to cancel themselves. The order directs FHFA to pilot automatic cancellation once a homeowner reaches the required equity threshold based on current home values.

It also directs agencies to lower rates on USDA and VA loans, make a title-insurance waiver permanent for some refinances, and create a task force to cut permitting and regulatory barriers for manufactured homes. The pilot's threshold is tied to current valuations, so paper equity can disappear in a downturn.

yesterday

A Treasury proposal cited alongside the housing announcement would restrict large institutional investors with 350 or more single-family homes from buying additional properties beginning January 7, 2027.

yesterday

FHFA Director Bill Pulte detailed the executive order's mortgage-insurance pilot, loan-rate directives, refinancing waiver, and manufactured-housing task force.

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HOUSING MARKET•2 days ago

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Pending home sales hit their lowest level since 2001

Pending home sales fell 7.3% in September, pushing the index to 66, the lowest reading in the National Association of Realtors series, which dates to 2001. Sales were also down 11.3% from a year earlier, so the market is losing transactions even as prices keep moving higher.

The West led the decline with a 9.2% drop, followed by an 8.2% fall in the South. Mortgage applications are near 1995 levels, while September home prices still rose 3.8% annually, leaving buyers with more negotiating power but little price relief.

3 days ago

September pending home sales were reported down 7.3% month over month and 11.3% year over year, with the index at 66.

3 days ago

Redfin data showed pending sales down 11.3% year over year and home prices up 3.8% annually in September.

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HOUSING MARKET•4 days ago

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U.S. homebuilder sentiment hits its lowest level since 2012

U.S. homebuilder sentiment fell to 29 in October, down from 32 in September and below the expected 31. That is the lowest reading since June 2012, as mortgage rates stayed above 7% and new-home demand weakened.

Builders are cutting prices and adding incentives to keep sales moving. A record 43% reduced prices, with average discounts of 6%, while nearly two-thirds offered buyer incentives. Construction costs also rose across energy, materials, labor, lots and policy pressures.

4 days ago

U.S. homebuilder sentiment fell to 29 in October, its lowest level since June 2012.

4 days ago

Reports linked the decline to mortgage rates above 7% and said 43% of builders cut prices.

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HOUSING MARKET•Oct 13

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14.5% of U.S. home-purchase agreements fell through in September

Homebuyers canceled 14.5% of U.S. purchase agreements in September, the highest rate ever recorded for that month. The increase came as mortgage rates and home prices kept demand under pressure, even though existing-home sales rose 1.5% from August.

That monthly gain still left sales down 2.2% from a year earlier, with the median price at $417,500. Sellers outnumbered buyers by roughly 63% in September, the widest gap on record.

Oct 13

September cancellation data showed 14.5% of contracted home purchases falling through, a record for the month.

Oct 13

September existing-home sales data showed a 1.5% monthly increase but a 2.2% annual decline.

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MORTGAGE RATES•4 days ago

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Mortgage applications fall for six straight weeks at 7.4% rates

Mortgage demand is weakening even as the average 30-year rate holds at 7.4%. Applications fell 2.7% last week, extending the decline to six straight weeks, and they were 16% below the same week a year earlier. Rates have climbed from 6.65% in August while home prices remain near records.

The supply side is stuck too. Homeowners have little reason to sell and take on a much higher loan: 87% of borrowers have rates at least one percentage point below current levels, and 76% are at least two points lower.

Oct 14

U.S. mortgage applications fell 2.7% for the week, extending the decline to six consecutive weeks.

Oct 15

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was reported at 7.4% after seven consecutive weekly increases.

4 days ago

Housing context highlighted mortgage lock-in, with 87% of borrowers holding rates at least one percentage point below prevailing rates.

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HOUSING MARKET•Oct 14

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U.S. homebuying hits its lowest level since the post-2009 crash

U.S. homebuying has fallen to its lowest level since the post-2009 housing crash. The average 30-year mortgage rate reached 7.56%, pushing the monthly payment shock even as prices stayed high.

Sellers are responding with price cuts, closing-cost credits, and mortgage-rate buydowns, but demand remains weak. Redfin data showed 21% of sellers cut asking prices. Sales still rose 1.5% month over month, while the median U.S. home price hit a September record of $418,000.

Oct 8

The average 30-year mortgage rate reached 7.4%, while 21% of sellers cut asking prices.

Oct 14

The average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 7.56%.

Oct 14

The median U.S. home price reached a September record of $418,000, while sales rose 1.5% month over month.

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REAL ESTATE•Oct 14

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VICI trades near pandemic lows despite stronger fundamentals

VICI is trading around $23, roughly where the casino landlord traded during the pandemic lows. The stock is priced at about 10 times AFFO, a 25% discount to NAV, and an 8%-plus dividend yield.

That looks disconnected from the company’s progress. VICI traded at $35 in 2022 with $1.93 in AFFO per share, no investment-grade rating, and no S&P 500 inclusion. Today, AFFO per share is around $2.48, and the balance sheet is stronger. The valuation gap is the stock sitting near $23.

Oct 13

VICI was reported trading at roughly 10 times AFFO, a 25% discount to NAV and an 8%-plus dividend yield.

Oct 14

VICI was compared with its 2022 valuation: $35 per share then versus about $23 currently, alongside higher AFFO per share and a stronger balance sheet.

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REAL ESTATE•yesterday

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Six MLSs sue Compass over alleged pressure campaign for listing control

Compass is now fighting on two fronts over who gets to control real-estate listings and who gets to leave the company. Six multiple-listing services in four states sued Compass in federal court over an alleged pressure campaign tied to listing access after its merger with Anywhere.

At the same time, Compass asked a court to enforce a noncompete against former executive Alex Vidal after he moved to RE/MAX. The request seeks to put his new job on hold while the MLS lawsuit asks the court to rule in the MLSs’ favor.

yesterday

ARMLS and five other MLSs sued Compass over an alleged pressure campaign.

yesterday

Compass sought to enforce a noncompete agreement against Alex Vidal after his move to RE/MAX.

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REAL ESTATE•Oct 11

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Restaurant-focused Four Corners REIT buys $2.3M automotive property

Four Corners Property Trust is using a $2.3 million automotive property to test whether net-lease investing is moving past sector labels. The restaurant-focused REIT bought it through a sale-leaseback, with corporate operations, a national operator, a long-term triple-net lease, and a high-traffic corridor matching its usual underwriting checklist.