Marine Le Pen leads France’s presidential odds at 43%

France’s next presidential race is increasingly being priced around Marine Le Pen, with debt, spending and public-service failures pushing fiscal management to the center of the fight. Student protests over underfunded schools are happening alongside a major debt crisis, even as government spending already equals 57% of GDP.

Polymarket traders put Le Pen at 43%, well ahead of Édouard Philippe at 18% and David Lisnard at 13%, with more than $145 million traded. Her odds rose from about 35% over the past month to nearly 45% before settling at 43%, while her campaign has paired hard-right positions with a €140 billion spending-cut plan and a proposal to reduce France’s net EU contribution to €5 billion.