Hassett’s 4% U.S. growth forecast needs AI to lift productivity from 2.5%

The administration’s 4% growth case depends heavily on AI lifting U.S. productivity, but outside shocks could still knock the economy off its expansion target. Current productivity growth is about 2.5%, so the forecast requires a sizable acceleration rather than a small improvement.

Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, said AI would be the biggest contributor to his base case. The pressure is straightforward: growth has to stay ahead of borrowing costs while the U.S. carries roughly $15 trillion in external debt.